Description

This analysis provides a forecast of KAS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 0.103335 0.114381 0.125680 0.138076 0.151265 0.164854 0.179885
2025-02-02 0.084837 0.101323 0.119010 0.139275 0.161731 0.185738 0.213227
2025-02-09 0.072531 0.092679 0.115208 0.141973 0.172613 0.206322 0.245935
2025-02-16 0.061390 0.083649 0.109515 0.141258 0.178643 0.220780 0.271370
2025-02-23 0.056590 0.081278 0.110871 0.148120 0.192942 0.244380 0.307106
2025-03-02 0.052128 0.078674 0.111416 0.153583 0.205293 0.265567 0.340053
2025-03-09 0.044743 0.071509 0.105617 0.150665 0.207057 0.273886 0.357632
2025-03-16 0.038002 0.064470 0.099339 0.146564 0.206872 0.279481 0.371673
2025-03-23 0.035558 0.063055 0.100167 0.151337 0.217599 0.298251 0.401571
2025-03-30 0.032755 0.060829 0.099678 0.154215 0.225820 0.313908 0.427736
2025-04-06 0.030848 0.059716 0.100556 0.158791 0.236163 0.332210 0.457228
2025-04-13 0.027655 0.056345 0.098036 0.158600 0.240189 0.342538 0.476876
2025-04-20 0.027530 0.057933 0.102858 0.168870 0.258547 0.371749 0.521073
2025-04-27 0.025021 0.055497 0.101754 0.170955 0.266201 0.387601 0.548965
2025-05-04 0.023079 0.053802 0.101612 0.174316 0.275566 0.405736 0.579920
2025-05-11 0.020344 0.050443 0.098726 0.173595 0.279305 0.416571 0.601679
2025-05-18 0.019841 0.050985 0.101816 0.181502 0.294873 0.442895 0.643348
2025-05-25 0.019023 0.050853 0.103795 0.187771 0.308220 0.466397 0.681554
2025-06-01 0.016354 0.046906 0.099430 0.184437 0.308051 0.471972 0.696595
2025-06-08 0.013749 0.042705 0.094340 0.179740 0.305746 0.474547 0.707640
2025-06-15 0.013147 0.042546 0.095943 0.185209 0.317857 0.496430 0.743927
2025-06-22 0.012235 0.041613 0.096159 0.188503 0.326862 0.514189 0.774922
2025-06-29 0.011689 0.041422 0.097623 0.193735 0.338689 0.535828 0.811136